World Population Chart

Rick Mills: Which Stocks Will Win Race to Feed a Power-Hungry World?

The Energy Report: German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently decided to shut down the country's nuclear reactors that began operating prior to 1980. Germany will ultimately disband its nuclear energy program in favor of gas and wind power following the fallout from Japan's nuclear disaster in March. Meanwhile, Japan is also attempting to lessen its dependency on nuclear power. How has that disaster permanently changed the uranium market?

Rick Mills: It's a short-term hiccup and it's probably presenting us with one of the greatest buying opportunities for carefully selected uranium stocks that a retail investor can get. The global nuclear renaissance that was underway in early 2010 was happening for specific reasons: concerns about climate change, reducing carbon footprints, energy security and the rising cost of fossil fuels. And then the disaster hit. It gave pause to the renaissance, but none of these reasons have gone away.

Germany's kneejerk reaction shut seven of its nuclear reactors. They won't be opened again. Its other reactors will also be completely mothballed by 2022. But the thing is that in 2002 Germany's center-left coalition enacted a law to phase-out nuclear power. Last autumn, Merkel's center-right coalition government decided to extend the lifetimes of the country's 17 reactors by an average of 12 years. That decision was based on a judgment that Germany could not meet its power demand using only natural energy sources, such as wind and solar. The country doesn't have abundant natural gas reserves. So, I find it pretty ironic what's happening over there. I think Germany may suffer when it finds it can't maintain its manufacturing competitiveness. Germany is now burning more coal, and already buying more nuclear power-generated electricity from France and the Czechs, who use the old Soviet-style reactors.

TER: There's a lot of talk right now about thorium replacing uranium as the fuel in nuclear reactors. These reactors could use thorium, which is much more stable than uranium, and roughly performs the same function. Do you think that thorium will ultimately replace uranium?

RM: Ultimately, but we're 35 to 40 years away from incorporating that technology. Uranium's got a long way to run. I believe thorium will be the answer one day, but not for several decades at least.

TER: What about the U.S.

World population: The world in 2100 | The Economist

In only 74years we will have more than 10 Billion - What are the consequences? What do this people need? Where does it come from?

I also have to challenge the UN presumptions - looking at 2100 if the most fertile people grow most and fertility remains the same than we would expect to see a pyramid structure like 1950. Even one with a wider base. I just assume that aids and health improvements balance each other.

It is dangerous to close the eyes about the prospect of lack of resources, famine and even war!

One of the most important issues in the world receives so little attention from TE?

Hmm... only several months ago the Economist had a special report on population growth that projected falling fertilities and total population topping out around 9B before beginning to permanently decline. Is the UN using different assumptions? Oh well, I guess Malthus may have the last laugh after all.

Lucrecius, TE writes regularly about population trends, resource dynamics, and climate change.

Two interesting and immmediately observable trends from this graphic:

1) The tremendous absolute and proportional projected growth in the number of people between the ages of 65-99 (both for the 2050 and the 2100 figures, though the latter demonstrate the trend more clearly).

2) The decrease in the number of people alive in the world between the ages of 0-4. It looks like, all told, they are projecting ~25 million less people between 0-4 in 2100 than in 2010.

Fertility rate in African countries is much more higher than in other parts of the World: Niger 7.10, from other hand life expectancy is much more shorter.

Population of Africa will increase and Europe will extinct...

Map: fertility rate and life expectancy by country http://russiansphinx.blogspot.com/2011/05/fertility-rate-and-life-expect...

@statusquocritical Yes after Second World War Finland and Japan had difficult situation and now the countries are rich so everything is changing and hard to predict which countries will be rich in the future.

Interesting chart.

Otherwise, the UN had projected out past 2100 before (to 2300 actually). I believe around 2003/2004 (I have the spreadsheet download on my drive somewhere).

Now they had 9 billion in 2100 as a reference in a lot of scenarios. Seems like 10 billion is still a revision that one shouldn't get crazy over (2100 is 89 years away). Seems due to trends in Africa, the middle east and s. asia. Everywhere else seems to peak and/or experince a little decline by then.

World population chart, 99xiii6

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